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Predicting the World Cup Winner

Written on June 9, 2010 at 15:23, by HTTN

A lot of people would love to know who is going to win the 2010 FIFA World Cup, from poolies to betters to ticket holders. Wouldn’t it be incredible if it were possible to somehow see into the future and predict who will win?

We thought so, so we began by examining the results from past World Cups. The trends were pretty surprising, to say the least.

Past Champions:

The FIFA World Cup has been in existence since 1930, and since then 18 tournaments have been played. Here is a list of the winners and the country that hosted them:

1930: Uruguay wins in Uruguay
1934: Italy wins in Italy
1938: Italy wins in France
1950: Uruguay wins in Brazil
1954: West Germany wins in Switzerland
1958: Brazil wins in Sweden
1962: Brazil wins in Chile
1966: England wins in England
1970: Brazil wins in Mexico
1974: West Germany wins in West Germany
1978: Argentina wins in Argentina
1982: Italy wins in Spain
1986: Argentina wins in Mexico
1990: West Germany wins in Italy
1994: Brazil wins in the United States
1998: France wins in France
2002: Brazil wins in Korea & Japan
2006: Italy wins in Germany

Analyzing the List of Champions

If you just said to yourself, “Wow, Brazil has really dominated.” Good on you for noticing something even Peter Griffin wouldn’t miss.

Luckily, we have a little more depth to our analysis. Take a look at these facts:

Out of the 18 tournaments played, 16 have been won by Brazil (5), Italy (4), Germany (3), or the host nation (4).

The Two Exceptions:

In 1950, Uruguay won. This year the final four played a mini round robin tournament to decide the winner. Brazil finished second, and was also the host country.

1950uruguay3

This tweet from Alcides Edgardo Ghiggia, who scored the game winning goal, shows that even Uruguayan players were stunned to win:

@Alcidesfutbol: ZOMG!!! Somos campeones del mundo! LOCO!!

English Translation: Zomg. We are world champions. Crazy.

You should realize that geographically, Uruguay is about as close to Brazil as possible without being Brazil.

And in 1986, Argentina won in Mexico.

maradonna1

The Europeans:

Did you notice that no European country has ever won when the tournament was not hosted in their continent?

Furthermore, Brazil and Argentina are the only teams that have ever won outside their own continent: Brazil in Japan & Korea 2002, USA 1994, Sweden 1958; and Argentina in Mexico 1986.

Solving the Puzzle:

Let’s review the facts:

Evidently, the host nation receives a boost from their hometown fans, as they have won 4 times. Still, it will take much more than a hometown boost to propel South Africa to any real success in this tournament. Maybe if you combine the hometown boost with all the other teams coming down with the plague, South Africa could potentially make the final. But even if they had the plague on their side against Brazil, they’d probably lose. Verdict: count them out.

In 18 tries, no European team has ever won outside the borders of the continent – pretty strong evidence to say that they won’t win in South Africa.

Recalling that Brazil and Argentina are the only teams ever to win outside their continent, we are left with them and the remaining African countries – Algeria, Ghana, Cameroon, Nigeria, and the Ivory Coast.

The Africans always create a buzz with their exciting up-tempo game, but let’s not go so far as to say that they will be legitimate contenders. In all honesty, they won’t.

So now that we’ve untangled the mess for you, Mr. Peter Griffin IQ, even you can see the result: the winner will be either Argentina or Brazil.

argentina2010

Sure, we’ve only narrowed it down to 2 teams, but considering you had about 10 contenders listed on your favourites list before, you should be happy to have a 50/50 chance of predicting the winner now.

kakarobinho

Aww Kaka and Robinho are bff’s.  If these guys won, could you actually be upset?

Side Notes About England:

Many of you probably don’t know that England didn’t even participate in the first three World Cups because they believed they had no need to prove their world dominance in the sport.

When they finally played in the 1950 tournament, they lost 2 of their 3 matches to Spain and the United States, and were knocked out after the first round!

This year, England may face the demons of their past, as they will once again battle the U.S.A in the first round.  Are their fans destined to end up with the same look on their faces that they have every 4 years?

englandupsetfans

- This post was created in collaboration with John Hanson, a football expert from England.

  • http://seolinkblast.com/services/edu-links/ Mary Pauling

    Your effort on this blog is really noticeable, but I like your simple writing style. It is easy to read and your ideas are clear.

  • http://www.baytree-healthstore.com John Hanson

    I would quibble with one detail: I know that Mexico is not in South America (it is classified as being in North America, actually) but the cultural links with South America are so strong that I think we can argue that Argentina in 1986 was playing within ‘home territory’.

    Also, I am not sure about me as a ‘football expert’! Still, it is all good fun.

    Actually, if Spain continue to play as well as they have been doing I would love to see them win. it would be a triumph for football as ‘the beautiful game’.

  • http://headtothe.net HTTN

    John, don’t be modest, you are indeed a football expert.

    I suppose if we say that the European countries are playing in home territory when they’re within the continent, then it’s not a stretch to say that Argentina was in a similar position. Still, I didn’t want to stretch it too much.

    HTTN is cheering for England, btw.

  • http://bestcarpet-steamcleaner.com Arron

    Anyone else feel a little slighted with a 1-1 tie after all that buildup?

  • http://headtothe.net HTTN

    I thought the game was quite exciting, despite the score.

  • http://www.bestworldcupbets.co.uk Ron

    I have just placed my first ever world cup bet and its for Germany to win on penalties in the final

  • http://headtothe.net HTTN

    Seems like the easy choice right now, seeing as how they dominated their first match.

  • http://www.smartdown.net/ Bettina Defilippis

    That is pretty insightful. It provided me a number of ideas and I’ll be writing them on my blog soon. I’m bookmarking your blog and I’ll be back. Thank you again!

  • http://www.optibacprobiotics.co.uk John Hanson

    Hello HTTN,

    Well, all my rooting into history to ascertain future trends from past results in order to forecast this year’s World Cup winner has come to nought. Pride comes before……. So the ‘football expert from England’ has been shown up as rubbish!

    However, one trend HAS continued, namely the fact that (and this is truly a horrible stat) England have NEVER EVER, since entering the competition in 1950, beaten a country of substance in the knockout stages, except in 1966, of course. Comb through the records and cry as you see this awful truth bitterly confirmed.

  • http://www.optibacprobiotics.co.uk Jalal

    Ron – your prediction on 15th June is looking pretty hot!

    Even though the result against Australia was eye-catching I didn’t think Germany would make it this far (Germany vs. Spain Semi-final kicks off in less than 2 hours!)

    I think this will be Spain’s final match unless Torres suddenly rediscovers form. Villa can’t match Mueller / Oezil / Shweinsteiger alone!

    And then Germany-Netherlands final with only one winner possible… Germans in the finals don’t go home empty handed!

  • http://www.baytree-healthstore.com John Hanson

    Well, it’s all over and the right team won, albeit not thrillingly. However, better to win the way they did than the way the Dirty Dutch tried.

    Back to square 1 with the England side. Will we EVER have a decent national side that won’t be trumped up by the red-top press? Not much hope there. Why can’t we be more like the Germans??? They have some great new playres. I liked the look of Mueller and Oesil (?).

    Who was your Man of the Cup?

  • http://www.optibacprobiotics.co.uk Jalal

    Yes – very glad Spain won – Netherlands didn’t deserve their negative football to be a success! But I thought the media / players were very harsh on Howard Webb. In a tough situation I thought he did well… and he couldn’t have avoided criticism, if he had branded red cards earlier everyone would have got angry he was spoiling the spectacle – so poor guy – no win situation!

    In terms of Golden Ball player of the tournament, I was quite surprised by Diego Forlan’s choice! Although I still remember him as the United flop so it probably influences my decision! I was also very impressed by Thomas Mueller and Oezil… Schweinsteiger was also fantastic. I thought Villa was incredible – perhaps I would award it to him – out of all the big players (Rooney, Messi, Ronaldo, Kaka, Torres etc.) I thought Villa stood up to the pressure and performed fantastically

  • http://headtothe.net HTTN

    Jalal, agreed – David Villa was the player of the tournament.

    Usually a ref will be blamed for giving out so many cards, but in the final match, he was doing all he could to keep the teams in control. I think he did a very good job at trying to keep everyone on the field, and not let reffing be the deciding factor in the game.

    John, your footy expertise is always welcome on HTTN, hope to see more from you in the future.

  • http://www.watchfamilyguy.co watchfamilyguy

    First!