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In just one day, the entire landscape of the tennis world has changed, perhaps for the entire 2011 year. Just when it appeared that Rafael Nadal’s health was back to 100% and he was poised to enter a stretch of world domination the tennis world had never before seen, he suffered a freak injury to his left hamstring early-on during his quarter-final match against David Ferrer.

All of a sudden, the Australian Open is up for the taking. But who’s going to grab it? Don’t, for one second, believe that the 2nd seeded Roger Federer has an easy path ahead. The distance between the 2 & 4 seeds is hardly existent.

The Former Favourite – Rafa

Just to illustrate how well Nadal was feeling before his quarter-final match, I give you his extremely relaxed post-Marin Cilic match interview:

Interviewer: “Do you find it distracting when everyone’s calling out ‘I love you Rafa!’ and ‘Vamos Rafa?’”

Rafa: “No, I feel fantastic.”

Interviewer: “Are you able to block it out?”

Rafa: “No, I heard everything. But… it’s nice.”

Interviewer: “What about when the girls are whistling at you and taking pictures?”

Rafa: “That… is a very good feeling.”

He also admitted to feeling weaker due to a flu bug he was fighting, and it looks like it affected his body more than even he realized.

Contender 1 – Roger Federer

Federer has not played in a Grand Slam final since winning last year’s Australian Open, the last tournament in which Nadal was forced to retire due to injury. Since then, Federer lost to Robin Soderling in the quarter-finals of the French Open, Thomas Berdych in the quarters at Wimbledon, and Novak Djokovic in the semis of the U.S. Open.

After a very disappointing season by his standards, he ended 2010 well, beating Nadal to win the Year-End Championships. But at 29 years of age, he just doesn’t move like he used to, and he can’t compete and hang in there through the gruelling 5 set matches with the world’s top players anymore.

Contender 2 – Andy Murray

Murray is a 2-time Grand Slam finalist, but he’s also a 2-time straight sets loser. Every tournament, every year, many experts pick him as the man who will win and finally break through.

It makes sense – Murray is the most skilled tennis player on the mens tour never to have won a Major title. Question is, will he ever be able to?

Here’s the problem: tennis is as much a mental game as it is physical. This is where Murray’s game has shown its greatest weakness, and it’s exactly where it broke down during the two finals against Federer.

When Murray stands on centre court at any Grand Slam final, does he beleive that he can win the key points and take the match? Do you? I don’t.

Contender 3 – Novak Djokovic

Then there’s Novak Djokovic, who hasn’t won a major title since his one and only, the 2008 Australian Open. Right before the same tournament a year later, in 2009, Djokovic switched raquets from Wilson to Head (for some inexplicable reason) and in August of the same year, he hired Todd Martin as a coach, who began to revamp his serve motion (again inexplicably).

Less than a year later, Djokovic dropped Martin and decided to return to his old service motion, and by the summer of 2010, the move was paying off. (Which obviously makes us wonder why he decided to change things in the first place).

After reaching the finals of the 2010 U.S. Open and losing to Nadal, he led Serbia to its first ever Davis Cup victory in December. It was the second biggest acheivement in his career so far, according to him.

The one problem that has always bothered “Nole” is his fitness. He struggles to fight through hot and humid conditions, and this has forced him to retire from many matches

From this pre-tournament interview, it seems that Djokovic has taken this obstacle head-on:

“Well, there was not a lot of time really to work on a lot of things. But I tried to build up my physical strength, my endurance, because I knew that this is probably going to be one of the most important things coming up, the Australian summer, which can be really hot. I had some problems in the past in Australia, so I really wanted to physically be fit for the tournament.”

Asked if he believes he’s improved as a player since his championship victory two years ago, he said simply, “Yes, I am.” (quotes taken from this article by Tom Gainey)

With Nadal absent, and Djokovic’s renewed game, he is HTTN’s pick to be the favourite. First reason – he never gives up. When Nole looks down and out, when he’s yelling at himself and breaking rackets, he’s at his best. He has the mental ability to hang in games where most people (see Andy Murray) do not.

Second, if his physical fitness can finally match his rivals’, there’s nothing that can stop him. His variety is just as good as the other three men here, and his ground strokes have more sting than Federer’s or Murray’s. Furthermore, he has simply walked through to the semi-finals of the Aussy this year, where he’ll face Federer, which is still a mountain to climb.

-To read about Rafa’s loss that has resonated around the world, click here